Providio's Daily Futures Market Commentary for June 27, 2012
Options Last Trade:Aug: 26July; Sep: 28Aug; Oct: 25Sep
First Notice: July: 29June; Aug: 31July; Sep: 31Aug; Oct: 28Sep; Nov: 31Oct; Dec: 30Nov
27June Today's violent, whippy day tells us to stay away for the time being.
Support 1558.6: 22June low
1553: -2STD below the 21-day moving average
1525-1530: Horizontal trend line that extends back to the previous low (26Sep 1532.7).
1500: Psychological support
1478.3 to 1462.5: Cluster of lows between 02May & 27June.
1456.8: 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2008- Sep 2011 rally
Resistance: 1589: Recent double top (25&25June)
1600: Psychological level and 21-day moving average (1600.2)
1627: Falling trend line in place since the $90 drop on 29Feb.
1647.9: +2STD above 21-day moving average
1674.5: 200-day moving average
Comment: Today's lower high and lower low relative to yesterday's action keeps the market inside the recent consolidation range. Our Trend and Momentum indicators remain negative after the recent failed attempt to make a higher recent high (1642.4 on 06June).
A break out above our noted falling trend line would ultimately project a rally above 1700.
Bigger picture, we see a giant descending triangle formation that extends back to the Sep 2011 high (1923.7). The upper boundary currently comes in around 1715. The bounce off our noted support level at the 26Dec low (1523.9) forms our horizontal trend line noted above and the lower boundary of the triangle. A break below brings our above noted support levels into play.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns spike higher until 20June, when the 15 & 30 yr patterns decline precipitously until 05July. The 5yr pattern consolidates until 06July.
First Notice: July: 29June; Sep: 31Aug; Dec: 30Nov
Support (continuous): 3.2965: Lower boundary of a bear flag.
3.2660: -2STD below the 21-day moving average has acted as a brake. Also rising trend line from the June 2010 low (2.7200) through the Oct 2011 lows (299.40)
on any weakness.
3.2380: 04June low - Futures Broker
3.2325: 15Dec 2011 low
3.2040: 25Nov 2011 low
3.0915: 20Oct 2011 low
2.9940: 03Oct 2011 low
Resistance (continuous): 3.3460: 21-day moving average
3.3550: Upper boundary of a bear flag.
3.4245: +2STD above 21-day moving average
3.4775: 18June high
3.5280: The 38.2% retracement of the April to May decline and also clusters around the upper end of a brief consolidation range in late May.
3.5825: 200-day moving average
Comment: Crosscurrents inside of the recent consolidation range... Similar to its Industrial counterpart, Crude Oil, Copper continues to form a bear flag. That said, Friday's Hammer candlestick formation and a test of the low indicates a potential reversal of the recent declines may be coming.
An attempt by our Momentum indicator to turn negative has been turned back for the time being. A negative turn would be similar to the action after the positive turn in late April/early May, which did not last long and could not yield a higher high for the move.
Like its Industrial counterpart, Crude, Copper remains in a falling channel pattern of lower highs and lows. An additional negative dynamic is the falling 21-day moving average is continuing its move below the 200-day.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns rally until the beginning of August.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this report is taken from sources we believe to be reliable and accurate. This information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are based on our best judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. These opinions should not be construed as an inducement or advice to enter into any Futures or Options on Futures transaction except where explicitly stated. There is risk of substantial loss in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.