Providio’s Daily Futures Market Commentary for April 26, 2012
Gold: 26Apr Simply put, Gold is looking for direction and seems confused. All of our technical indicators are pointing higher, but they have also been unstable… flipping between positive and negative… rising and falling… since mid March. That said, the June contract has been in a falling channel since the $86 drop on 29Feb (below the 21-day moving average), currently bound by 1585-1665. A sustained break out above this formation would be a good first step toward confirming its long-term positive bias. The flattening 21-day moving average (currently 1652) has offered resistance for the last two weeks.
Additionally, our rising trend line support that extends back to Oct 2008 comes in around 1610. We are watching closely. This rising trend line forms the lower boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern that extends back to last Sep. Drawn from those highs at 1920, the upper boundary of the triangle is at 1750..
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate with a downward bias until the end of April, then modest strength into the last half of May.
Copper: 26Apr The July contract has given back this morning’s probe above the 200-day moving average (374.20), but it is trying to cement a positive turn in our Momentum indicator, which has been negative since the end of Jan.
Volume has been trending higher, supporting this last week’s strength. RSI is rising and has reached the 50 level from being Oversold last Thursday, 18Apr. Look for price resistance at RSI 60 or so as it has been failing there for almost 2 months.
Look for support at 18.104.22.168, where the market has repeatedly tested support, on a closing basis, dating back to 11Apr.
Resiatance is seen just above today’s highs at 3.70, stair stepping up to 3.725, and then 3.80.
Seasonal Snapshot: All our patterns are coming to the end of a consolidation near highs and then a modest lower bias until April 28th