http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/blog.php/1531-MbWealthCorp Gold And Precious Metals Discussion Forums en Wed, 22 May 2013 18:22:57 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/images/green/misc/rss.jpg http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/blog.php/1531-MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/91-Commodity-Update-July-18 Mon, 18 Jul 2011 20:29:18 GMT As of this post September Crude is lower by 1.4% but prices did hold above the 9 day MA. $94.50 in this contract will need to hold on a closing basis... As of this post September Crude is lower by 1.4% but prices did hold above the 9 day MA. $94.50 in this contract will need to hold on a closing basis for me to maintain my bullishness. Natural gas has appreciated nearly 13% in the last two weeks and at this juncture we are advising the sidelines anticipating re-establishing longs from lower levels for clients. Equities broke down today trading to a three week low as bearish momentum is gaining. A close at current levels; in the S&P below 1305 and below 12300 in the Dow we would become a seller on rallies with aggressive clients. Continue to use the 50 day/100 day MA’s as your pivot points. Nothing to me screams buy or sell but those looking for a trade could fade rallies in the commodity currencies; Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie. Gold hit another record high today settling above $1600/ounce gainign8% in the last two weeks. We are bullish in the intermediate time frame but we expect a correction in the immediate future of $30-40…trade accordingly. Silver appreciated 3.5% today lifting prices to three month highs. Like gold we are bullish but are expecting a correction in the immediate future. A 20% appreciation in two weeks in our opinion seems a bit much. We would be looking to buy a break back under $38/ounce in the September contract. The entire live stock complex was hit today with lean hogs lower by 1.23%, feeder cattle by nearly 1% and live cattle by 0.90%. Perhaps the biggest news was not the movement but the lack of as pork bellies were de-listed from the CME. The near 5% dip in live cattle has us interested in probing longs for aggressive clients very soon…stay tuned. Sugar remains a sale as we expect prices to head south trading back near 25 cents/lb. Cotton and coffee continue lower as they have been two of the hardest hit commodities in recent weeks. Since the beginning of June cotton has lost 30% of its value and coffee from the beginning of May has lost 20%. Wait for a further correction in grains before buying wheat, corn or soybeans remains our suggestion. Buyers were absent from Treasuries today and with some of the big players calling for higher yields which would equate to lower pricing. On a trade through the 20 day MA’s we may be interested in bearish exposure with clients in 30-yr bonds or 10-yr notes…stay tuned.



Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/91-Commodity-Update-July-18 http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/90-It-s-A-Trader’s-Market Thu, 14 Jul 2011 22:16:48 GMT This is not your father’s market where investors can buy and hold. Cut losses and take profits…risk management is the name of the game. Three dollar... This is not your father’s market where investors can buy and hold. Cut losses and take profits…risk management is the name of the game. Three dollar trading ranges or $3,000 swings are now commonplace in Crude in a 24 hour period so this market can be humbling. It is a roller coaster ride but as we’ve voiced as long as futures hold $94/barrel we like being long. We remain cautiously bullish for clients with a target of $102/103. Natural gas will close negative but nearly 15 cents off their lows. Obviously we’re not the only ones looking to buy dips. Our target remains $4.55/4.60 and we maintain trades should be in September contracts. As of this post it appears stocks…well at least the S&P should close below its 50 and 100 day MA’s. If that is the case we could make a run at the 200 day MA approximately 35 points lower. We have NO exposure but forced into the market we would be a seller for clients. Take off your Yen longs or trail stops at a minimum. We advised clients to reverse in the Loonie today. That is move from buyers to sellers. Our recommendation was to sell September calls looking to capitalize on a trade lower. Live cattle broke the 20 day MA today for the first time in one month. Intra-day we were trading down the daily limit which was a nice move for our clients bearish trades. I hate picking tops as I generally get egg on my face but we would book profits on gold and silver bullish trades as an interim top MAY be in place. Aggressive traders can lightly gain bearish trades in gold…we are not so brave in silver. Ideally we get a setback to be a buyer in both metals for clients. Sugar gave up 4% today…a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement puts October future back at 26.75 cents. Those who remained short may get their redemption. Our advice is to have bearish exposure in either October 2011 or March 2012. Our targets are as follows…26.75, 25.60, 24.45, 23.50. Clients will be looking to get back in Ag trades (wheat, corn and soybeans) ahead of the next USDA but from lower levels…stay tuned. Treasuries may break down from her but wait for more confirmation. Lower highs and lower lows are a preliminary sign but we’d like to see more evidence. We took a shot today buying inexpensive August 30-yr bonds puts with some clients. They only have one week so we need a break tomorrow or early next week or they would expire worthless.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/90-It-s-A-Trader’s-Market http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/89-Dollar-down-should-Commodities-Up Wed, 13 Jul 2011 20:48:16 GMT Crude will close off its intra-day highs but the key will be if we can get a settlement above the 9 day MA; in August at $97.60. A trade above $99.50... Crude will close off its intra-day highs but the key will be if we can get a settlement above the 9 day MA; in August at $97.60. A trade above $99.50 we should hit out target of $102/103 shortly after. The immediate direction will likely be paved buy outside market influence i.e. equities and the dollar. We’re suggesting buying dips and bullish exposure NOT selling rallies and bearish exposure. Day four of the natural gas acceleration as a rounding bottom is left in the rear view mirror all it would take is a bullish AGA tomorrow and we’re off to the races. A 5% appreciation from current levels is our call. Two side trade in the indices as the 50 and 100 day MA’s continue to serve as the pivot point. Coin toss we recommend the sidelines. The dollar clearly failed at 77.00 and while the 20 day MA supported today we’re thinking a trade back under 75.00 in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. The Yen remains our pick of the litter and this bounce in commodities may allow clients to fight back in their Loonie call option trades…stay tuned. Nothing to report in lean hogs or feeder cattle but we like bearish exposure in live cattle in either futures or options in October expecting to capitalize on a 2-4% depreciation. Gold printed a new records high today… clients were advised to lighten up and book profits on a portion of their bullish trades. Are we looking for more the answer is yes but $100/ounce in about a week may be too much too fast…trade accordingly. Silver gained 7% today..book partial profits as a $4/ounce move in two weeks has been nice but nothing goes up in a straight line. We will be buying dips in both metals for clients. Cocoa gained nearly 4% and another positive showing tomorrow and we will exit clients remaining longs. Sugar lost less than 1% but on a day almost all commodities appreciated significantly a close nearly 4% off its highs…maybe a blow off top? Some clients remain short looking for a big break. Cotton could be bought just as a trade as we should see a bounce from oversold levels. Our favored play is to wait for a bounce and sell from higher levels in the coming weeks. The appreciation in Ag’s this week has been stellar but we advised longs in corn, wheat and soybeans to book profits today. We will stay the course in soybean oil and look to buy back in on the other products on a retracement. Off their lows corn has bounce d $1 bushel, soybeans 90 cents and CBOT wheat $1.25. All of these contracts when trading futures are $50/penny. Again in Treasuries we will likely be a seller from higher levels…stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.




Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/89-Dollar-down-should-Commodities-Up http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/88-Weak-Non-Farm-Payrolls-Figure-Moves-The-Markets Fri, 08 Jul 2011 23:15:56 GMT A curve ball with NFP today…unemployment reaching a reported 9.2% and adding 20% of the anticipated jobs last month whipsaws markets today. Crude... A curve ball with NFP today…unemployment reaching a reported 9.2% and adding 20% of the anticipated jobs last month whipsaws markets today. Crude gave back the previous two days gains down 2.4% as of this post. We did not see this type of move to end the week but we still finished higher now for the second week running and though the wind was taken from bulls sails we are still friendly and anticipate higher ground. Energy traders may just need to deal with increased volatility when trading Crude, the products and natural gas. Inside day in natural gas today with August gaining just over 2% today. We like the increased volumes in recent sessions and view nat gas as a value play. As we’ve voiced in recent posts a 10-15% appreciation from current levels is our expectation in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. Stocks will finish near their highs on the week but from over bought levels and based on the lack luster jobs number do not rule out a trade back under 1300 in the S&P. Some clients own September bear put spreads. New entries could gain bearish exposure willing to cut losses on a settlement above May’s highs. The commodity currencies have had a nice bullish run but in my opinion it is time to book a profit and look for a potential reversal getting short next week…stay tuned. On our radar as a potential buy is the Yen but we’ve yet to make a play with clients. Continue to buy dips that hold the 20 day MA in lean hogs. In the last four sessions August gold picked up nearly $60/ounce recouping almost all of the previous two weeks losses. We’re looking for more thinking we could see a new record high in the coming weeks..that would mean roughly an additional 2.2% from current levels. Our suggested play is purchasing October bull call spreads. Silver in the same four day period advanced 8% and should be on its way in the September contract to $38-39/ounce. We suggest September and December call spreads. Cocoa has started to roll over as we hinted at in previous posts. We’ve worked out of most of our clients longs ideally we get a bump early next week to be out of all remaining positions. Aggressive traders should use an advance in cocoa next week to get short. Sugar’s near 12% advance this week was painful for our clients bearish positions. Most remain short thinking this parabolic move will soon reverse but a trade over 30 cents/lb. in October we would likely leave the position with a sizable loss…stay tuned. Agriculture remains a buy and we think in the coming weeks all the recent losses will be erased…that goes for wheat, corn and soybeans. Corn will likely be the leader on the upside but at some capacity we suggest gaining log exposure in this sector expecting the USDA report in August to be more accurate than the debacle in late June. Treasuries are back above their 20 day MA’s…what a roller coaster ride of late. If 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes rally further but fail to make new highs we may look to get clients short again…stay tuned.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results




Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/88-Weak-Non-Farm-Payrolls-Figure-Moves-The-Markets http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/87-Out-of-Treasuries-into-Commodities-and-Stocks Thu, 07 Jul 2011 22:34:37 GMT Crude powers through the 40 day MA closing at three week highs just under $99/barrel in August. We maintain a $103 target and continuing at the... Crude powers through the 40 day MA closing at three week highs just under $99/barrel in August. We maintain a $103 target and continuing at the current up pace prices should reach that level by this time next week. The 2% surge in Crude was dwarfed by the strength in the distillates with RBOB higher by 4% and heating oil higher by 4.4%…talk about the tail wagging the dog. Natural gas lost just over 1% after trading at four month lows on what we view as an overreaction to today’s’ AGA. Note prices did close 10 cents off their lows. We advised those holding September bull call spreads from higher levels to buy back their top legs today. Stocks remain overbought but after today’s activity prices have advanced to two month highs. We’ve been selling into this strength buying September bear put spreads for clients BUT if we get above the May highs we may leave the trade at a loss…stay tuned. The 7% rally has been on light volume and in our opinion too much too fast. The standouts in the currency complex remain the commodity currencies; the Aussie , Kiwi and Loonie . Our pick remains the Loonie as a settlement above 1.0415 should signal 1.0500 in September. Lean hogs sentiment shifted back to bullish with the settlement back above the 20 day MA today, in August at 94.25. Use that level as your pivot point as we will likely be buying dips for clients. Live cattle cleared the upside resistance and though we have no current exposure we will likely see higher pricing. We will not partake though as we see better risk/reward opportunities elsewhere. Gold finished in positive territory but was unable to take out the previous day’s high. It should just be a matter of time as we feel a $30-40 move higher is imminent…trade accordingly. Silver advanced 1.5% picking up just over $2.50/ounce in the last three sessions. We like the chart pattern and feel we could see a 5% surge in the coming week or so…trade accordingly. Sugar is pushing 30 cents/lb making it a near 50% advance in the last two months…OUCH for our clients shorts. Futures move south from here or we will likely take a pretty heavy hit…stay tuned. Today we bought back clients puts with the expectation of prices turning on a dime any day now. If cocoa challenges the recent highs we will try to liquidate our clients remaining longs tomorrow. Agriculture is a buy…corn, soybean and wheat in my opinion. Today’s activity December corn gained 1%, September wheat 1.2% and November soybeans picked up 1.45%. An additional play could be soybean oil which should benefit from the appreciation in soybeans and Crude oil. Notice the correlation in recent months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Money appears to be flowing out of the perceived safe haven “Treasury complex” with 30-yr bonds, 10-yr notes and Euro-dollars all trading lower. At this juncture looking at the risk/reward we suggest the short end of the curve i.e. longer dated Euro-dollars …December 2012 for example.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.




Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/87-Out-of-Treasuries-into-Commodities-and-Stocks http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/86-Will-Commodities-Follow-Faltering-Stocks Wed, 06 Jul 2011 21:53:43 GMT August Crude has advanced nearly $7/barrel in just over the last week but the next hurdle will be the 40 day MA at $98. On a settlement above $98 we... August Crude has advanced nearly $7/barrel in just over the last week but the next hurdle will be the 40 day MA at $98. On a settlement above $98 we see little in the way of resistance until $102. The resiliency in the distillates should keep Crude moving higher in the short run…in my opinion. Natural gas closed lower by 3% today near its lowest level in one week. As long as $4.18 holds on a closing basis in August we still suggest bullish exposure. Our favored play with clients has been purchasing September call spreads anticipating a trade 6-8% higher than current levels. Today’s lower close in stocks will be the first negative session in the last eight days as is looks like a 6% appreciation in one week the bulls need a rest. Aggressive traders can sell into this strength as we feel a trade back to 1275 is in the cards in the September contract. We started initiating this trade for some clients last week and are currently carrying a loss FYI. The dollar is back above its short term MA’s likely on the IR move from China. We could get a continued bounce but sideways action between 74.50 and 76.50 is our prediction in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. We see no forex trades that scream buy or sell but traders could take small positions long the Loonie or short the Euro . There is not a clear buy or sell signal so our suggestion would be keep your size small. Being live cattle have had trouble making new highs we would not rule out a trade lower. If we see signs of weakness in the coming sessions we may probe shorts with aggressive clients expecting a revisit of the 20 day MA approximately 2.5% lower. Gold has bounced off over sold levels advancing nearly 3% in the last two sessions. We expect this leg higher to lift prices near contract/record highs $50 higher…trade accordingly. September silver closed above the 20 day MA for the first time in one month and looks poised to trade above the down sloping trend line that has capped rallies since Memorial day. A trade to $39/ounce could come in real quick order…in my opinion. Our suggestion is to have bullish exposure in gold and silver looking for higher ground. Cocoa closed lower today for the first time in seven sessions losing 1.2%. Prices are over bought and we will be out of all longs ideally from slightly higher levels with clients in the next few sessions. Furthermore after the 11% appreciation in the last month aggressive clients may reverse…stay tuned. Some of clients remain short sugar from over bought levels but they are still carrying a loss as stubbornly sugar has maintained at multi-month highs. We expect October to trade closer to 23 cents/lb. in the coming weeks. Agriculture has corrected in recent weeks and we would view these lower prices as buying opportunities. We like November soybeans, September wheat and December corn. November soybeans are off 6%, September wheat down by 27% and corn is lower by 15%. On a trade higher in 30-yr bonds, 10-yr notes and Euro-dollars we would be looking to be a seller from higher levels.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.




Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/86-Will-Commodities-Follow-Faltering-Stocks http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/85-Commodities-Catch-a-Bid Tue, 28 Jun 2011 21:23:37 GMT Crude advanced 2.30% as of this post and is on the verge of penetrating the 9 day MA for the first time in nearly three weeks. A settlement above $94... Crude advanced 2.30% as of this post and is on the verge of penetrating the 9 day MA for the first time in nearly three weeks. A settlement above $94 in August should be followed by a trade up to at least $98 in the coming weeks. The fact that the distillates are finding a bottom should lend to a leg up in Crude. RBOB is 15 cents off its lows from yesterday and heating oil has bounced 10 cents…stay tuned. Natural gas picked up just over 2% and will close over the 9 day MA. Goldman is covering their shorts and as we’ve voiced in recent sessions a 10% appreciation from here is what were expecting…trade accordingly. Indices traded to their highest level in one week and should be on their way to their respective 100 day MA’s …1307 in the S&P and 12160 in the Dow. The dollar index will lose 0.40% today and selling should pick up on a breach of the 20 day MA; at 75.15 in September. Expect the commodity currencies; the Loonie , Aussie and Kiwi to outperform if commodities continue to appreciate in the short run. Live stock was a marginal gainer but we would still like long entries from lower levels in hogs and cattle with our clients. Gold and silver held onto slight gains today and as we voiced yesterday our suggestion is purchasing call spreads in October gold and December silver. We are early and will look to add to this trade once the train gets moving north again which we feel is sooner rather than later. Cocoa backed off its highs but mid-day traded above the 200 day MA…we are looking for more upside. The 4.25% appreciation in sugar did not help our clients shorts today with prices advancing to six month highs. Our target in the October contract remains 23 cents but we did not expect to take this much heat. Ags are starting to find buying ahead of Thursday’s USDA. We suggest buying December corn, November soybeans, September CBOT wheat and September soybean oil. Do not get involved in all though as there will likely be a strong correlation in grains in the coming sessions. As of this post both 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds have broken their respective 20 day MA’s. Clients that held on are finally getting some premium back! The short end of the curve, i.e. long dated Euro-dollars are also rolling over…

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/85-Commodities-Catch-a-Bid http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/84-Summer-Doldrums Fri, 24 Jun 2011 21:43:48 GMT It does not take much in the way of volume to move markets in thin trade so be careful. Wind was taken from the bulls sales in Crude this week as... It does not take much in the way of volume to move markets in thin trade so be careful. Wind was taken from the bulls sales in Crude this week as prices traded down to seven month lows. August Crude is finding buyers at $90/barrel but that level will need to hold or prices could see $85 in the coming weeks. Some clients are long from higher levels and I’m thinking we see $95 before $85. The distillates will need to bottom before we see any upside in Crude as well. That did not happen today with RBOB lower by 1.50% and heating oil down 0.50%. The last two occasions in the last three months natural gas was at current pricing it was a buy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Our suggestion is purchasing September bull call spreads. Sloppy sideways action as of this post indices are almost at the exact point we started the week. Next week we will see if the 200 day MA can hold…if it does we may have some bullish trade recommendations. The dollar is approaching its highs on the week but we don’t anticipate a trade north of 77.00…trade accordingly. The Loonie failed at the 20 day MA closing down nearly 1%, we suggest cutting losses on any long futures. Lean hogs have lost 3% in the last three sessions but we expect a trade down to the 20 day MA another 2%. We would like to see a 3-5% dip in live cattle before re-establishing longs for clients. Gold and silver gave up the ghost in the last two sessions with gold down over $50/ounce and silver giving back nearly $2/ounce. Some clients have light long exposure via options and are carrying a loss but for now we choose to stay the course. Cocoa held the 20 day MA on today’s pullback and in our eyes is still a buy. Sugar remains a sell though clients who are short are carrying a loss our target remains 23 cents/lb in October. On the week grains traded down but at these levels we feel longs should be scaled into with long exposure into next week’s USDA. That goes for corn , soybeans and wheat. Our clients hold bullish positions in soybean oil and wheat and likely will be gaining some new crop corn exposure next week. Treasuries failed to breach the 20 day MA if this carries into next week clients will likely cut loses on their September bearish plays in 30-yr bonds. As for the short end of the curve prices have started to consolidate for what could be a leg lower…stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.


Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/84-Summer-Doldrums http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/83-Hard-trades Thu, 23 Jun 2011 22:29:56 GMT The Hard Trade 6/23/11 In my career generally the hardest trades have been my most successful. Buying on days like today is not easy but likely... The Hard Trade 6/23/11

In my career generally the hardest trades have been my most successful. Buying on days like today is not easy but likely the correct move. The EIA’s move of releasing SPR’s will grab headlines in Crude but in our opinion will be a moot point by next week if not sooner. We consume north of 80M barrels a day and they are releasing 60M barrels…do the math. Today’s candle in Crude was ugly but we did pare loses trading $2 off the lows as of this post. Analysts are screaming $85/barrel I don’t see it. We suggest using weakness as a buying opportunity but in full disclosure we recommended clients to buy from higher levels. It’s called hedging for a reason…heating oil and RBOB got hit hard today…thankfully we advised clients to scale into their fall hedges. Natural gas gave up 2% today closing at a five week low. We’ve advised clients to purchase September bull call spreads. An additional trade idea would be to buy December 2011 and sell December 2012 3:1 call options. Inquire for exact strategy but it is a longer term bullish play with little out of pocket cost. As of this post indices have fought back to almost get positive on the session…very impressive considering early trade. The dollar should close about 0.70 higher but well off its highs. Without follow through tomorrow we still feel south from here. Use last week’s high as your pivot point…in other words when we’d admit we’re wrong. As for trading the only play we have is buying the Loonie. Lean hogs should trade lower perhaps back to the 20 day MA; in August at 92.75 stay tuned. Selling was rejected in live cattle today after filling the gap from early this week. We missed the buy for clients but buying dips remains on our radar. Gold down2% and silver off by nearly 4% was not what we anticipated but we like the late day rally and are feeling a little better about our clients long exposure. August gold will need to hold $1510/ounce or things could get extremely ugly. Some clients have light exposure in October call spreads. Silver remains sideways trading back near the bottom of the recent trading range. We like buying but if $34 in July gives way look out below. We would not suggest owning both gold and silver at the same time as they will likely move together. Cocoa breaks below the 20 day MA or above the 200 day MA and there you go…we like being long. Sugar bounced off the 20 day MA closing 7.5% off its lows. We suggest fading rallies anticipating 23 cents/lb in the coming weeks. Mixed bag in Ags but as we said use this setback to gain long exposure ahead of June 3oth USDA. We closed well off the lows and corn, soybeans and wheat are a buy on dips in our eyes. Treasuries are back at their highs which means a higher selling point but all this trade has done is lost clients money. We will likely walk away until a top is confirmed.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/83-Hard-trades http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/82-Inflation-Vs-Deflation Wed, 22 Jun 2011 22:02:04 GMT I’m not smart enough to know what is better for the economy inflation or deflation but I do know that things cost more than they used to and I... I’m not smart enough to know what is better for the economy inflation or deflation but I do know that things cost more than they used to and I thought that was inflation. Maybe I need to go back to school…isn’t it that easy Ben? Crude oil picked up ground for the third consecutive session today carrying prices back near the 9 day MA at its highs. As we said yesterday we would need to see the distillates turn before Crude could reverse…low and behold RBOB was higher by 3% and heating oil advanced nearly 2%. Look for further evidence in the coming sessions and then we should be in bull mode again. Natural gas made a new high and failed but being the recent sell off has dragged prices to oversold levels we like gaining long exposure. For now our suggested play is purchasing September bull call spreads. Inside day in the indices and the rally up to Fed may have seen enough. If we fail to trade above 1295 this week prices will likely head back to 1265. If long trail stops to protect profits. The Pound broke down today being the biggest loser down over 1% as of this post. Chart damage was done and we have shifted our bias form bullish to bearish here. The Loonie is still a buy in our eyes and should gather steam if metals and energies advance. Move to the sidelines in live cattle and lean hogs and let prices back off so we can re-establish longs from lower levels. Both gold and silver held onto small gains but are currently trading well off their session highs. We maintain our bullishness and think both metals should be accumulated at these levels. Cocoa has touched the 200 day MA twice in the last three week but in both instances gains were capped. On a trade above 3055 in September look for upside momentum. Sugar is a sell…a near 25% appreciation in the last five weeks is not justified in our opinion. A bloodbath is the only way to explain the action in agriculture today. Clients will be advised to buy this dip and be long into June 30th USDA report but unfortunately some are already long wheat and soybean oil and today was not kind to them. Remain long but recognize the damage may not be done. We feel wheat should trade back near $8/bushel by late June early July that is why we’ve held on. As we voiced yesterday Treasuries look heavy but they have for weeks. A trade below the 20 day MA should signal an interim top; that level is 125’7 in 30-yr bonds and 123’07 in 10-yr notes.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.


Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/82-Inflation-Vs-Deflation http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/81-Tomorrow-Is-The-Day Tue, 21 Jun 2011 21:11:17 GMT Based on what happens in Greece overnight and tomorrows FOMC meeting we should be able to determine where to position clients moving forward. Crude... Based on what happens in Greece overnight and tomorrows FOMC meeting we should be able to determine where to position clients moving forward. Crude held its own but do not read into the big volume jump as it is just the July/August roll over. We are cautiously optimistic thinking yesterdays lows could serve as an interim bottom. Assuming we trade higher from current levels a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would lift prices in August to $101.30/barrel. Some clients hold light long positions from higher levels. As we voiced yesterday we think it will take the distillates finding a base before being convinced Crude can gather any upward momentum. We feel after yesterdays reversal in natural gas it can be bought. Our suggestion at the moment is 50 cent bull call spreads in September. We are also pricing out various options strategies, December 2011 and December 2012 calls to buy and hold…stay tuned. A rally ahead of the FOMC and perhaps a solution out of Greece contributed to the 1-2% advance in stocks today. Aggressive traders may have gotten long on yesterday’s post. If so 1295 should be your first target and 1310 your second in September futures in the S&P. The greenback broke its short term MA’s and should head towards 74.00 in the coming sessions…trade accordingly. Our suggested currency exposure is buying dips in the Pound or Loonie with stops below the recent lows. The September Cable should make its way to 1.6400 and the Loonie to 1.0400 on this leg. I may have advised leaving a good thing prematurely as lean hogs and live cattle continued their appreciation today; August hogs higher by 1.75% and live cattle by just over 1%. They say the trend is your friend and June has been higher trade in livestock. We will be looking to buy back in for clients on a retracement…stay tuned. Third consecutive positive trade for both gold and silver as we feel a jump could happen in the immediate future. Gold will likely see a new contract high and silver as should trade back towards $39/40 ounce if we’re right. Obviously the two biggest game changers in the next 24 hours would be news out of Greece or any surprises from the Fed. Most clients have either long exposure in October gold or September silver. Cocoa picked up nearly 2% today making its way back near the 200 day MA. Stay long and expect more as we see little resistance above 3075 in September. Clients are taking heat in their bearish sugar plays but we will hold anticipating a trade lower in the coming sessions. The July to September roll and stops being hit triggered the 4% appreciation in OJ. We will likely be looking for selling opportunities on a further trade up…stay tuned. Yesterday we said buy Agriculture …did anyone listen? Corn a gainer of 1-3%, soybeans 1% and wheat by 1.2-2.2%. We like the corn and CBOT wheat charts the best as for the majors but also think purchasing soybean oil is worthy of a look. After a 6% correction we are ripe for a rally…in my opinion. Some clients gained long exposure via September call options today. If Treasuries can bust and close below the 20 day MA we got a shot of seeing prices roll over. That level is 125’5 in 30-yr bonds and 123’05 in 10-yr notes.



Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/81-Tomorrow-Is-The-Day http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/80-Tidal-wave! Mon, 20 Jun 2011 22:47:28 GMT A rising tide lifts all boats! As stocks increase and metal bulls get back in the driver’s ‘s seat look for commodity appreciation. Crude manages a... A rising tide lifts all boats! As stocks increase and metal bulls get back in the driver’s ‘s seat look for commodity appreciation. Crude manages a slightly higher close but the real story is the prices should settle $2 off their intra-day lows as trades below $92/barrel were rejected in August. If the distillates did not trade 1-2% lower today we would have likely seen more appreciation. On signs of an interim bottom in heating oil and RBOB that should signal a turn higher in Crude. Six out of the last eight sessions natural gas has lost ground with prices approaching levels not seen in five weeks. We have buy targets with longer time frames on our radar but have yet to commit client capital…stay tuned. 1250-1255 has served as solid support for the last week in the S&P. Aggressive traders could work into longs with an initial target of 1300 in September futures. The dollar backed off sli9ghtly but did hold the 20 day MA; in September at 75.25 which should serve as the pivot point. We see no currencies that scream buy or sell but aggressive traders could be starting to scale back into longs in the Loonie. The best performing sector of late could go to livestock; lean hogs have appreciated 12% in the last two week, feeder cattle are up by nearly 10% while live cattle bring up the rear gaining 8.5%. Gold and silver were only slightly higher but we like the chart formation and anticipate a leg higher to commence any day now. We expect August gold to make a new contract high in the coming weeks and could see July silver near $40/ounce. Cocoa bounced off a triple bottom and is back over the 20 day MA. We suggest getting long at these levels with a target of 3100 in September. Sugar was higher by 4% today breaking out to 3 1/2 month highs. Some of our clients are short and feeling the pain as prices have shot 11% higher in the last three sessions. Stay short for now but if prices do not roll over soon we will be forced to cut losses. Coffee gave up 2.4% today making it a near 10% loss in the last four days. We should see a trade below the 200 day MA for the fits time in twelve months. That level in July is $239. Corn and soybeans were unchanged while wheat gave up nearly 2%. All grains are oversold and could be bought with the intention of adding to the trade at higher levels. At the moment some clients are long CBOT wheat from higher levels looking for a trade back near $8/bushel in the September contract. Treasuries look toppish but that has been the story for several weeks. Clients are short and carrying losses in 30-yr bonds and Euro-dollars.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/80-Tidal-wave! http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/79-A-Greek-Tragedy Fri, 17 Jun 2011 21:22:24 GMT In the immediate future what comes out of Greece will be the driving force in the markets. August Crude gave up 2% today and is nearly $10 off levels... In the immediate future what comes out of Greece will be the driving force in the markets. August Crude gave up 2% today and is nearly $10 off levels from just over one week ago. Aggressive clients have light long exposure and are carrying losses and we will not be adding positions until we see an inter bottom. Clients own about 50-60% of the ultimate long we want to own but from about levels $5 higher. Those not willing to buy a standard futures could buy a mini or sell calls against their futures 1:1. On its lows today natural gas had retraced 61.8%. Prices have yet to reach over sold levels on the daily chart but we’re getting close. Look for buy recommendations likely via call spreads in the coming weeks. Stocks manage to hold slight gains for the first time in seven weeks. We have no feeling at this point but forced into the market we would rather be a seller than buyer. The dollar gave back some gains today trading back to the 20 day MA. If 75.25 gives way in the September contract which will largely depend on news out of Europe and the flight or lack of flight to quality into the Greenback. Use that level as your pivot point. On a break lower in the dollar look to be a buyer of the Pound or Euro. Strong finish to the week in live cattle with August higher by 2.2% and December picking up just over 1%. A 50% Fibonacci retracement would lift prices about 2.5% higher. Silver has been sideways now for four sessions but we think a base is being built for the next leg higher and have we’ve started to position clients in bullish positions in September futures and options. Gold picked up nearly $10/ounce today and should be on its way to levels seen in late April. We advised clients to gain bullish exposure in October contracts. Continue to buy cocoa and fade this rally in sugar. Coffee broke down today closing at a five month low…we feel there is more downside to come. We will be reversing in our grain positions for clients if they have not already. That means we’re now suggesting bullish plays and have covered our client’s shorts. Our favored picks at this moment are buying wheat and corn. Stand clear of Treasuries for now… there will be a time in our opinion to be short but all attempts to date have resulted in client losses.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/79-A-Greek-Tragedy http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/78-It-s-A-Manic-Market! Wed, 15 Jun 2011 21:31:56 GMT The volatility and massive swings we're seeing across all sectors is not for the faint of heart. One of my clients today said oil is down $3 it cannot go any lower...wrong! Markets can and will do the unthinkable...be careful. After the initial pop on the inventory report it was all down hill for Crude and the distillates with a settlement approximately 4% lower on Crude and the products. We advised hedgers to start working their way back into fall hedges putting on light longs today willing to add in the coming sessions on further weakness. As for Crude we used today's weakness as a buying opportunity at least for a trade with some of our more aggressive clients thinking we can get a bounce in the next few sessions. However there was chart damage done so after the bounce we will likely be looking for bearish trades rather than bullish...stay tuned. If natural gas futures hold $4.50 the next few sessions we will start gaining long exposure with a medium time horizon say 60-90 days...stay tuned. All of yesterday's gains were given back and some in the stock market. Stand clear until the dust settles...these move are too manic. The dollar cut through the 20 day MA like a hot knife through butter. This likely cause a a number of stops to be triggered that exaggerated the move. All crosses were hit hard with the Euro and Kiwi getting hit the hardest. A recent trade recommendation was short the Swissie which continues to be a viable trade as for the buy in the Loonie if willing to take some heat stay the course. If 1.0150 holds in September this trade still makes sense to me. Continue to trail stops in lean hogs and move to the sidelines in live cattle as we settle back below the 20 day MA. Gold and silver held up surprisingly well considering action in the outside markets. We like being long both metals for clients but only are suggesting option spreads or trading futures and hedging with options to allow more flexibility. For instance buying September call spreads in silver or October call spreads in gold or getting long futures and selling out of the money calls 1:1. As for softs we maintain that cocoa is a buy at current levels and sugar is a sell. Our respective targets are 3050/3100 in September cocoa and 23.00 in October sugar. Aggressive traders can again sell rallies in cotton and coffee. Corn was down limit most of the day but managed to pare losses closing down 2.7-4% depending on the month. We're expecting another 15-25 cents lower in old and new crop. Wheat gave up 3% today while soybeans were virtually unchanged. Our advice is still bearish exposure in corn looking to reverse from lower levels...see above. Additionally a spread trade short corn and long wheat 1:1. All our clients’ exposure in the Debt complex lost value today as they remain short Euro-dollars and 30-yr bonds. This trade has been a challenge and we will be happy to leave it. Likely at a loss unless prices roll over in the immediate future.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/78-It-s-A-Manic-Market! http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/77-CHINA-tapping-the-brakes Tue, 14 Jun 2011 21:33:49 GMT A healthy move by China overnight should aid in further appreciation in most commodities in the medium and long term…in my opinion. Higher low and... A healthy move by China overnight should aid in further appreciation in most commodities in the medium and long term…in my opinion. Higher low and higher high in Crude likely helped by outside markets and the move in China overnight. On a settlement over $100/ barrel look for upside momentum to build…we are cautiously bullish with a target of $103/104 in July. Natural gas is just over 40 cents off its high last week having competed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our short term target in July remains $4.40/4.45 where we will likely start scaling into longer dated bullish positions for clients. News from China contributed to a rally in stocks globally with all major US indices appreciating by 1-2%. View this as a tradable bounce that could lift prices 3.5-5% higher…trade accordingly. Our long target in the S&P would be the 50 day MA at 1323. Continue to fade rallies in the Swissie and buy dips in the Loonie. The Canadian dollar should see 1.04 and the Franc should see 1.1600 in their respective legs. Live cattle closed above the 20 day MA again today…stay long using that as your pivot point. Trail stops in lean hogs being we broke above the triple top mentioned yesterday. In the last six days lean hogs have appreciated just over 9%…do not be a pig book partial profits. Inside day in gold with a close back above the 20 day MA gaining 0.70%. Clients were advised to lift their July puts off in early dealings at a very slight profit when yesterdays low held. A nice move in silver today with July futures higher by 2.4% but we will need to re-take the trend line at $36.75 to feel confident we’re moving north from here. On that in the next few sessions we will be shopping bullish exposure with aggressive clients. Copper traded higher by 3% breaking out on strong economic data and news from China. July above $4.20/ounce should signal further appreciation…trade accordingly. Cocoa has held the 20 day MA now for three straight sessions closing higher by 0.90% today. We suggest bullish exposure and have an upside target of 3100/3150 in September. Aggressive traders can get short October sugar via futures or options with a first target of 23 cents. I’ve been called crazy for getting short grains of late and yes guilty as charged. Look for more depreciation and for corn and soybeans to be bigger losers than wheat. Our current recommendations are outright shorts in corn or short corn against long CBOT wheat 1:1. Say it is not so a break Treasuries in both the long end and short end of the curve. Some clients have bearish plays in 10-yr notes, 30-yr bonds and Euro-dollars anticipating more downward pressure…trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
www.mbwealth.com
http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com
Contact MB Wealth ]]> MbWealthCorp http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/gold-forums/entry.php/77-CHINA-tapping-the-brakes