Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.
Bernard M. Baruch
This is not your father’s market where investors can buy and hold. Cut losses and take profits…risk management is the name of the game. Three dollar trading ranges or $3,000 swings are now commonplace in Crude in a 24 hour period so this market can be humbling. It is a roller coaster ride but as we’ve voiced as long as futures hold $94/barrel we like being long. We remain cautiously bullish for clients with a target of $102/103. Natural gas will close negative but nearly 15 cents off their lows. ...
Crude will close off its intra-day highs but the key will be if we can get a settlement above the 9 day MA; in August at $97.60. A trade above $99.50 we should hit out target of $102/103 shortly after. The immediate direction will likely be paved buy outside market influence i.e. equities and the dollar. We’re suggesting buying dips and bullish exposure NOT selling rallies and bearish exposure. Day four of the natural gas acceleration as a rounding bottom is left in the rear view mirror all it ...
Crude powers through the 40 day MA closing at three week highs just under $99/barrel in August. We maintain a $103 target and continuing at the current up pace prices should reach that level by this time next week. The 2% surge in Crude was dwarfed by the strength in the distillates with RBOB higher by 4% and heating oil higher by 4.4%…talk about the tail wagging the dog. Natural gas lost just over 1% after trading at four month lows on what we view as an overreaction to today’s’ AGA. Note prices ...
August Crude has advanced nearly $7/barrel in just over the last week but the next hurdle will be the 40 day MA at $98. On a settlement above $98 we see little in the way of resistance until $102. The resiliency in the distillates should keep Crude moving higher in the short run…in my opinion. Natural gas closed lower by 3% today near its lowest level in one week. As long as $4.18 holds on a closing basis in August we still suggest bullish exposure. Our favored play with clients has been purchasing ...
Based on what happens in Greece overnight and tomorrows FOMC meeting we should be able to determine where to position clients moving forward. Crude held its own but do not read into the big volume jump as it is just the July/August roll over. We are cautiously optimistic thinking yesterdays lows could serve as an interim bottom. Assuming we trade higher from current levels a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would lift prices in August to $101.30/barrel. Some clients hold light long positions from higher ...
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