The Gold Economy

The decline in the yield on the U.S. 10-Year note should stall between 2.999 and 2.813. It seems like Comex gold will struggle to return to its June 21st high of $1266.5. Nymex crude oil should spend the week between $71.71 and $77.05. The euro should trade between 1.2035 and 1.2670. Even though the bear has found the picnic basket, the Dow should rebound to 9,856 this week.

US Treasury Yields – Semiannual and quarterly supports are 3.479 and 3.486 with my annual and weekly pivots at 2.999 and 2.941, and daily, annual, quarterly and semiannual resistances at 2.879, 2.813, 2.495 and 2.249. Yields should stop their decline between 2.999 and 2.813. On Thursday the U.S. Treasury will announce next week’s supply: $35 billion 3-Year notes, $21 billion 10-Year notes and $12 billion 30-Year bonds.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – New quarterly support is $1140.9 with annual support at $1115.2. Semiannual and daily pivots are $1218.7 and $1203.2 with weekly, semiannual and monthly resistances at $1238.4, $1260.8 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21st was a test of June’s monthly resistance and the $1260.8 to $1279.3 should be a significant top for gold.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – Weekly and quarterly supports are $71.71 and $56.63 with daily and annual pivots at $72.80 and $77.05, and monthly and semiannual resistances at $79.36 and $83.94, which should limit the upside as the global economy slows down. The 200-week simple moving average has been a magnet for more than twelve months as crude oil is trendless.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – Daily support is 1.2471 with monthly resistance at 1.2670. Monthly, weekly and quarterly supports are 1.2035, 1.1957 and 1.1424. The euro is still oversold on its weekly chart.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Weekly Dow: The April 26th high of 11,258 was a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the decline from October 2007 high to the March 2009 low. Note also the failed test of the 200-week simple moving average now at 11,091 and the failed test of my annual resistance at 11,235. MOJO is declining and weekly closes below the 5-week modified moving average at 10,209 keeps the weekly chart profile negative.

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Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Disclosure: No positions